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US Economic Recovery in 2017–2019: D. Trump’s Factor
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US Economic Recovery in 2017–2019: D. Trump’s Factor
Annotation
PII
S207054760008140-1-
Publication type
Article
Status
Published
Authors
Vladimir Vasiliev 
ORCID: 0000-0003-3131-9500
Occupation: Chief Scientific Researcher
Affiliation: Institute for the U.S. and Canadian Studies, RAS
Address: Russian Federation, Moscow
Edition
Issue 4
Abstract

The widespread thesis that the progressive development of the American economy under the Administration of D. Trump in 2017–2019 was a linear consequence of the economic policy of the previous Democratic Administration of B. Obama is analyzed. The theses of supporters of this point of view, as well as its opponents among American experts and analysts, are described in detail. Based on the analysis of a large amount of statistical data, the author comes to the conclusion that the D. Trump economic policy represents to a certain extent a fundamental break-up with the policy of the previous administration of B. Obama. The main feature of the policy of the D.Trump Administration is the formation of a “one-factor economy” in the USA, in which the main factor in the progressive development of the economic system is played by the capital factor, personified by D. Trump himself － the multi-billionaire elected for the first time as the American president in the US history . The main drivers of American economic development under D. Trump were the stock markets, which showed record growth in business activity over the three years of his Administration.. The rise of stock markets under D. Trump was the most important distinguishing feature of the state of the American economy from the actual stagnation of stock markets during the years of the B.Obama administration. It is emphasized that the tax reform of 2017 contributed to a significant inflow of foreign capital into the American economy, as a result of which the net balance of accumulated foreign direct investment (FDI) in the US economy in 2018 reached $ 1,0 trillion. It is indicated that the stimulation of economic growth under D. Trump occurred at a late stage of the upward phase of the economic cycle that began in June 2009. Therefore, the D. Trump administration will have to face the likelihood of a recession in the American economy, which may occur as before the Presidential election in November 2020, as well as after them. The recession in the economy, its duration and depth will ultimately determine the fate of D. Trump's “economic experiment”. 

Keywords
economic growth, economic policy of the B. Obama Administration, economic policy of the D. Trump Administration, one-factor economy, stock markets, business confidence index, unemployment rate, economic recession
Received
19.09.2019
Date of publication
20.12.2019
Number of purchasers
84
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3796
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S207054760008140-1-1 Дата внесения правок в статью - 13.01.2020
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References

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